Morgan Stanley's 2025 Top 50 Watch Brands Report: Rolex Reigns Amid Market Polarization
In the wake of Vontobel's Luxury Goods report, which analyzed the top 10 watch brands for 2025 and the watch industry's evolution over the past year, Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult unveil their highly anticipated annual analysis. This report delves into the intricate dynamics of the watch industry, ranking the top 50 brands by turnover and unit sales, based on meticulous estimates. Building upon the record sales reported in 2023 and the initial signs of contraction in 2024, the 2025 report underscores these trends, alongside the significant market polarization affecting nearly all luxury goods segments. The top 4 brands now command over 50% of the overall Swiss watch market, a stark contrast to previous years.
Key Takeaways from Morgan Stanley x LuxeConsult's 2025 Swiss Watch Report:
- The Swiss watch market continues its contraction for the second consecutive year, with exports down -1.7% in value terms, reaching an estimated CHF 49 billion (excl. VAT).
- Morgan Stanley estimates the global wholesale market for Swiss watches at CHF 25.9 billion in 2025, while FHS reports exports at CHF 24.4 billion. This marks a second consecutive year of market contraction in value.
- Industry volumes have more than halved since 2011, with a cumulative decline of -44% since the 2008 recession and -51% since the peak in 2011. Quartz watches have halved, while mechanical watches remain stable.
Market Polarization and Brand Performance:
- The market remains dominated by 6 key players: Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, Omega, and Richard Mille. However, two are owned by groups, and four are privately held.
- These top brands have consistently gained market share, while listed groups have generally lost market share, mirroring the trend of the past four to five years.
- The 'Big 4' (Rolex, AP, PP, and RM) exhibit resilience, performing strongly despite market uncertainties and geopolitical challenges, albeit with limited growth in 2025.
- Rolex, in particular, has proactively managed scarcity, maintaining brand desirability, and is estimated to have volumes down -2% to 1.1 million watches, a rare occurrence in over 20 years.
Struggles and Resilience Among Top 50 Brands:
- Some brands faced significant challenges in 2025, with estimated turnover contractions of 15% or more: Longines, Swatch, Hamilton, Blancpain, Breguet (Swatch Group), Panerai and Roger Dubuis (Richemont), Zenith (LVMH), Girard-Perregaux, and Franck Muller.
- Omega, once the second-largest brand, now ranks fifth due to declining sales and faster growth among competitors.
Polarization Intensifies:
- The top 4 brands account for over 50% of the market in 2025, up from 55% in 2024 and 52.4% in 2023, indicating a stronger concentration of market share.
- The 'billionaires' club' (brands with revenues over CHF 1 billion) has shrunk, with Longines exiting after Vacheron Constantin's departure in 2024.
Ultra-Premiumization and Market Dynamics:
- Watches priced above CHF 50,000 accounted for 37% of export value and 89% of total growth in 2025, despite comprising only 1.4% of volumes.
- The ultra-luxury segment remains resilient, while the core range of the Swiss watch industry, once dominated by the Swatch Group, faces challenges.
- The Swatch Group maintains dominance at entry and mid-tier levels, selling approximately 8.8 million watches in 2025, accounting for 60% of the Swiss watch industry's volume.
High-End Independent Watchmakers Thrive:
- Independent brands like F.P. Journe, H. Moser & Cie., and MB&F are estimated to have increased revenues in 2025.
- Christopher Ward, a mid-range independent watchmaker, has made its mark among the top 50 brands, showcasing the potential for growth in this segment.
For further insights, visit Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult, where you can explore the detailed estimates and gain a comprehensive understanding of the watch industry's evolving landscape.
